Higher mortgage rates hit new-build sales harder than existing homes
Developers are holding asking prices, so buyers who can borrow less are walking away, ING housing market economist Sander Burgers says, and new-build sales are already falling.
Higher mortgage rates are weighing on new-build homes more than on existing ones, because new-build prices barely move, according to ING research. The bank's housing market economist, Sander Burgers, says sales of new-build homes are already falling.
For first-time buyers with a typical mortgage, ING puts the rise in gross housing costs at 10%. The average offered 10-year fixed rate with a NHG guarantee has risen from 3.6% to 4.4% in a year.
Without NHG, the average offered rate rose from 3.9% to 4.8%.
"New-build prices are fairly rigid," Burgers says. "If buyers can borrow less and can no longer pay the asking price, the deal falls through and you see that in the sales figures. They are already falling."
He expects developers to hold back new projects. "They will sooner wait before bringing the new supply to market," Burgers says, which in turn would depress the number of sales further.
The Dutch Association of Real Estate Agents (NVM) has worried for some time that new-build is pricing itself out of the market. Median sale prices are almost equal: €504,000 for new-build and €503,000 for existing homes. But a comparable new-build home costs more than €40,000 extra, the NVM says, based on a new analysis by its data arm Brainbay of 240,000 new-build homes put on the market since 2016.
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NHG (Nationale Hypotheek Garantie)
The National Mortgage Guarantee is a Dutch guarantee scheme for home loans. If a homeowner cannot repay the mortgage and the house sells for less than the outstanding debt, the guarantee covers the lender's remaining loss, and the buyer pays a premium for it. It applies only to eligible purchases, such as owner-occupied homes below a maximum price, and a guaranteed mortgage is often offered on more favourable terms than an unguaranteed one.
NVM (Nederlandse Vereniging van Makelaars)
NVM is the Dutch professional association of real estate agents (makelaars), which represents its member agents in the Netherlands. It sets professional standards for its members and publishes housing market data, including sale prices and market reports based on transactions handled by its members. Its market analyses are often cited in discussions about house prices and the housing market in the Netherlands.