US sanctions scenario would severely harm Dutch security
The 2026 national risk analysis finds that a scenario of US sanctions against an isolated Netherlands would severely damage national security, with the country's international position hit hardest.
A scenario in which the US imposes sanctions on an isolated Netherlands would cause "a very serious impairment" of national security, according to the 2026 national risk analysis (Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse). All national security interests except the ecological one would suffer "significantly to catastrophically". The Netherlands' international position, part of the Kingdom's territorial security, would be hit hardest.
The scenario shows the effects of targeted US economic sanctions and interference against the Netherlands and the Caribbean part of the Kingdom. It stems from a trend in which countries increasingly use economic dependencies as a geopolitical means of pressure. It combines three elements: an unpredictable, self-interested US and an uncertain alliance; close Dutch ties with, and dependence on, the US, plus coercive trade policy; and polarisation and political extremism in Dutch society.
The scenario includes physical harm: one death, several injured, and certain population groups attacked by extremists. Over two years, the effect on unemployment and the public debt ratio is relatively limited. The effect would be much greater if one of the alternative "what if" variants, on the financial system, energy supply or digital services, came true.
The analysis names vulnerabilities. As a small, internationally interwoven country, the Netherlands is susceptible to political or economic pressure, for example on defence capabilities, continuity of digital services and energy security. It also depends heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Professionals and stakeholders can request the full scenario text.
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Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse
The Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse is the Dutch government's cross-government national risk analysis, which assesses the scenarios that could seriously threaten the Netherlands. It describes how each scenario would affect the national security interests, such as territorial security, economic security, social stability and ecological security, and rates the expected impact. It matters because it forms the basis for national crisis preparedness and for the policy choices that the government and parliament make to protect those interests.