Typical mortgage bill to rise €150 a month for 950,000 homes
The central bank DNB estimates that homeowners with a variable rate or an interest reset before the end of 2028 will pay more as higher mortgage rates feed through, though most appear able to absorb it.
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Illustrative photo: Dqfn13 / CC BY-SA 4.0
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) estimates that gross monthly costs will rise by €150 for the typical household with a variable rate or an interest reset before the end of 2028. About 950,000 households have at least one part of their bank mortgage in that position.
The differences are large. For a quarter of these households the rise is less than €50, while another quarter will pay more than €300 extra. DNB says most households appear able to absorb the rise, but some may come under financial pressure.
For the typical household, gross mortgage costs rise from 20% to 24% of net income after the reset, assuming income has grown with average wage growth. Among the households studied, 8% will spend more than 40% of net income on mortgage costs, against 4% before. That is roughly 60,000 households against 30,000.
Of the outstanding mortgage debt at banks, 3% has a variable rate and 16% faces an interest reset before the end of 2028. Together that is 19%. At current rates the reset would lead to a higher rate in almost all cases, and for about 11% of outstanding debt the rate could rise by more than two percentage points. The average rate on new mortgages was around 1.6% five years ago and is almost 4% now.
Most mortgage debt will not reset before 2029
% of outstanding mortgage debt at banks
Most mortgage debt will not reset before 2029 (% of outstanding mortgage debt at banks). Highest: Reset after 2033, 48; lowest: Variable rate, 3; 4 items. Source: DNB.
View data
| Item | % of outstanding mortgage debt at banks |
|---|---|
| Variable rate | 3 |
| Reset by end 2028 | 16 |
| Reset 2029–2033 | 27 |
| Reset after 2033 | 48 |
The rise in net monthly costs can be lower because of the mortgage interest deduction (hypotheekrenteaftrek); DNB's calculation does not include this. The research is based on about 755,000 of the 950,000 households, for which enough information is available.
The rise will not hit everyone at once. For most outstanding debt the reset comes later, and DNB says more households could face higher monthly costs after 2028 as their fixed-rate periods end.
Source: DNB
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