National risk analysis urges Netherlands to cut risky dependencies and choose priorities
The 2026 national risk analysis says the world has changed fundamentally in four years and urges the Netherlands to cut risky dependencies and make strategic choices on cooperation and scarce resources.
The Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse 2026, the four-yearly national risk analysis, concludes that the world has changed fundamentally over the past four years. It says geopolitical, economic and digital dangers threaten national security, as do major non-deliberate risks such as pandemics, floods and extreme heat. Experts at the Analistennetwerk Nationale Veiligheid (ANV), a national security analysts' network, drew up the analysis for the NCTV, the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security.
The analysis covers threats to the security interests of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, including the Caribbean parts, and the vulnerabilities that go with them. It is an important basis for updating the Veiligheidsstrategie, the national security strategy.
Rising tensions between countries increase the threat of deliberate disruptions and attacks, the analysis says. Besides military threats, economic, technological and political dependencies can be used as leverage. The international legal order is under pressure.
The main non-deliberate threats are a pandemic, heat, drought and, for the Caribbean part of the Kingdom, hurricanes. Climate change can make these events follow each other faster and become more intertwined, which makes both the threat and the measures needed more complex.
The network grouped the threats into themes and developed them into realistic scenarios. It also describes what could happen if several scenarios occur at the same time. Themes include polarisation, extremism and terrorism, unwanted interference in the democratic rule of law, and international military threats.
The analysis says the Kingdom has absorbed shocks relatively well in the past, with emergency measures and financial support during the pandemic and the energy crisis. But as threats grow more complex, so does vulnerability, and the government and society must both strengthen their resilience.
The ANV advises reducing risky dependencies, helping society to be resilient through self-reliance and mutual reliance, and making fundamental choices on international cooperation and the use of scarce resources. It says that postponing these strategic choices, or not making them, harms resilience, and with it national security.
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ANV (Analistennetwerk Nationale Veiligheid)
The Analistennetwerk Nationale Veiligheid is a network of Dutch government and knowledge-institution analysts who work together on analyses of threats and risks to national security. Its analyses feed into the government's national risk and threat assessments, which guide policy on crisis preparedness and security.
NCTV (Nationaal Coördinator Terrorismebestrijding en Veiligheid)
The National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security is a Dutch government unit that falls under the Ministry of Justice and Security. It coordinates national work on terrorism, security and threats to the country, and it produces national risk and threat analyses.
Veiligheidsstrategie
The Veiligheidsstrategie is the Dutch government's national security strategy, a policy document for the Kingdom of the Netherlands that sets out its security interests, the threats to them and the priorities for responding. It is updated over time as the threat picture changes, and it guides how the government prepares for and responds to security risks.