# Oil market swings to surplus, and Dutch petrol prices fall

> Global oil supply now exceeds demand for the first time since the Iran war began, and Dutch pump prices are falling: UnitedConsumers puts the advisory price of petrol at about €2.41 a litre and diesel at about €2.52.

Economy · published 2026-11-14 16:32 · https://nlnow.nl/a/oil-market-swings-to-surplus-and-dutch-petrol-prices-fall/

The world oil market is in surplus for the first time since the Iran war began in late February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports. In October, supply exceeded demand by almost 2 million barrels per day, because more crude is again leaving the Gulf region.

For September, the IEA revised an earlier deficit to a surplus of 600,000 barrels per day. Oil exports from the Gulf are now at 74% of their level before the war. More tankers are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, although attacks continue and calm has not fully returned. The agency sees "cautious signs of the balance returning".

A barrel of Brent crude now costs $96, down from about $117 at the end of October. Prices have fallen because of higher exports and hope for a diplomatic solution to the war. Demand is also weaker, as people drive less because of high fuel prices.

The fall is reaching Dutch drivers. The advisory price of petrol is about €2.41 per litre, consumer platform UnitedConsumers says. Diesel is about €2.52.

**Dutch pump prices are well below their records** (€ per litre; source: UnitedConsumers)

- Petrol (Euro95): 2.73 to 2.41
- Diesel: 2.82 to 2.52

Both are below their records: Euro95 petrol cost about €2.73 a litre on 10 October, and diesel about €2.82 on 19 September. The IEA expects global oil demand to keep falling in the last weeks of 2026 and to rise again from January.

## Background

- **IEA (Internationaal Energieagentschap)**: The International Energy Agency is an intergovernmental organisation based in Paris that advises its member countries on energy policy and analyses global energy markets. It publishes a monthly Oil Market Report with estimates of oil supply and demand, which governments and market participants use as a key reference. Its figures show whether the world oil market has more supply or more demand in a given month.
- **Brent**: Brent is a benchmark grade of crude oil produced in the North Sea, and its price is one of the main international reference prices for oil. Many other crude oils and oil products are priced relative to Brent. Because Dutch fuel prices follow international oil prices, a rise or fall in Brent usually shows up at Dutch petrol stations after a short delay.

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