# Minority coalition drops to about 45 seats in poll average

> D66, the VVD and the CDA together would hold less than a third of the Tweede Kamer, the latest Peilingwijzer shows, as budget talks with the opposition are under way.

Politics · published 2026-10-29 18:21 · https://nlnow.nl/a/minority-coalition-drops-to-about-45-seats-in-poll-average/

The three parties of the minority coalition, D66, the VVD and the CDA, stand at around 45 seats in the latest Peilingwijzer, a weighted average of seat polls by Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag. That is less than a third of the seats in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of parliament.

D66 of Prime Minister Jetten is at 13 to 17 seats, 11 fewer than it holds now. The VVD is at 14 to 18, a loss of 6, and the CDA at 12 to 16, which is 4 fewer.

**D66, VVD and CDA would drop from 66 seats at the 2025 election to about 45** (seats in the Tweede Kamer (150); source: Peilingwijzer (Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag); election 2025: Kiesraad)

- PRO (GroenLinks-PvdA in 2025): 25 to 31
- PVV: 18 to 23
- VVD: 14 to 18
- D66: 13 to 17
- JA21: 15 to 19
- CDA: 12 to 16
- Forum voor Democratie: 10 to 14
- 50Plus: 4 to 6
- Partij voor de Dieren: 4 to 6
- SP: 4 to 6
- ChristenUnie: 3 to 5
- SGP: 2 to 4
- Volt: 2 to 4
- Denk: 1 to 3
- BBB: 0 to 2

Opposition party PRO, led by Jesse Klaver, remains by far the largest at 25 to 31 seats. The PVV of Geert Wilders also loses, at 18 to 23 seats. JA21 (15 to 19) and Forum voor Democratie (10 to 14) grow.

Only 28% of VVD voters think Dilan Yesilgöz should lead the party again at the next elections, according to Verian/EenVandaag. Ipsos I&O finds the same. Yesilgöz gets the lowest rating of the main political leaders, a 3.7, and no more than 8% of VVD voters say they vote VVD because of its leader.

Tom Louwerse, the political scientist who makes the Peilingwijzer, says seat polls outside election time have little predictive value for the next result. But parties do react to them, he says, which puts more pressure on them to win concrete items in negotiations. "Compromises then become even harder. That makes budget negotiations like the ones now under way not easy."

## Background

- **Tweede Kamer**: The House of Representatives, the lower and more powerful house of the Dutch parliament. Its 150 members are elected directly; it can amend bills and holds the cabinet to account.
- **Peilingwijzer**: The Peilingwijzer is a Dutch website that combines recent seat polls into a weighted average, showing how many seats each party in the Tweede Kamer would win if an election were held at that moment. It draws on several national polling organisations and gives more weight to polls that are more recent or more reliable. It matters because it is the most common reference point for the political balance between elections, and Dutch media often cite it when describing how parties and coalitions are doing in the polls.

From NLnow, news from the Netherlands in English. How stories are made: https://nlnow.nl/about/