# Life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds trimmed to 21.08 years

> Statistics Netherlands expects a 65-year-old in 2032 to live 21.08 more years, down from last year's forecast. The figure will be used to set the state pension (AOW) age for that year.

Society · published 2026-11-13 05:53 · https://nlnow.nl/a/life-expectancy-forecast-for-65-year-olds-trimmed-to-21-08-years/

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) expects the life expectancy of 65-year-olds in 2032 to be 21.08 years, slightly lower than the 21.14 years it forecast in 2025. In practice, someone aged 65 in 2032 can expect to live about 21 more years.

The forecast is used to set the future state pension age (AOW-leeftijd) under Article 7a of the Algemene Ouderdomswet, the state pension act. The age is 67 for 2024 to 2027 and 67 years and 3 months for 2028 to 2031. The minister of Social Affairs and Employment will set the age for 2032 on the basis of the forecast.

Life expectancy has been rising again since 2022 after a temporary fall during the coronavirus pandemic, CBS says, but more slowly than expected. That is why the forecast was revised down. CBS calls the forecast the most likely outcome and also calculates uncertainty ranges around it.

**Life expectancy at 65 fell in the pandemic and is back to 20.05 years** (years; source: CBS)

- 2011: 19.51
- 2012: 19.46
- 2013: 19.61
- 2014: 19.92
- 2015: 19.67
- 2016: 19.77
- 2017: 19.89
- 2018: 19.89
- 2019: 20.1
- 2020: 19.46
- 2021: 19.5
- 2022: 19.72
- 2023: 19.88
- 2024: 19.95
- 2025: 20.05

Between 1950 and 2019, life expectancy at 65 rose from 14.3 to 20.1 years. The coronavirus pandemic pushed it down to 19.5 years in both 2020 and 2021. It recovered to 19.7 in 2022 and reached 20.1 in 2025.

Women still live longer than men. In 2025 the gap at age 65 was 1.9 years. Men are back at their 2019 level; women are not yet.

The forecast is part of the CBS population forecast for 2026 to 2070, which will be published on 16 December.

## Background

- **CBS (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek)**: Statistics Netherlands, the independent government body that produces the official statistics on the Dutch economy and society.
- **AOW-leeftijd (Algemene Ouderdomswet)**: The AOW age is the age at which a person in the Netherlands becomes entitled to the state pension (AOW). Under the Algemene Ouderdomswet, it is linked to the forecast of life expectancy at 65, so it can change over time, and the minister of Social Affairs and Employment sets it for coming years based on that forecast. It matters because it determines when most residents can start receiving the AOW pension.

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