# Dutch gas price falls as traders expect US push to end Iran war

> The price on the Amsterdam TTF exchange fell sharply on Wednesday after the Republican defeat in the US midterms; households on a dynamic contract feel it at once, those on a fixed contract do not.

Economy · published 2026-11-05 12:37 · updated 2026-11-05 14:11 · https://nlnow.nl/a/gas-price-on-dutch-exchange-falls-after-us-republican-defeat/

The gas price on the Amsterdam TTF exchange fell sharply on Wednesday, after the Republican Party of President Trump lost the US midterm elections. The price had peaked last Friday and began to slide as the result became clear.

Traders appear to expect the Democrats to push Trump towards a diplomatic end to the conflict with Iran, which would let more gas from the Middle East reach the market. More liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also arriving from the United States.

What households notice depends on their contract and on how long the lower price lasts. People with a dynamic contract, whose price moves every day with wholesale prices, see their gas costs fall straight away. Households with a fixed contract notice nothing, because their tariff stays the same. Whether prices for other consumers also fall depends on whether the drop lasts.

Suppliers' rates had been rising since the spring. In September the average gas delivery tariff, before energy tax and network costs, was €0.6618 per cubic metre including VAT, up from €0.5641 in April, CBS figures show.

What a household pays is more than the supplier's rate. For an average Dutch home, which used 790 cubic metres of gas in 2025, the September 2026 rates add up to about €1,458 a year. The gas itself and the supplier's fixed charge come to €509, the grid operator's transport charge to €222, energy tax to €474 and VAT to €253. Energy tax and VAT together are €727, about 50% of the bill.

**Tax is 50% of a household's €1,458 gas bill** (Average gas bill of a Dutch home using 790 m3 a year at September 2026 rates, €; source: CBS)

- Gas and supplier: 509
- Grid operator: 222
- Energy tax: 474
- VAT: 253
- Bill: 1458

**What this means for you**

- A fixed tariff (vast tarief) keeps the price per kWh or m3 the same for a set period, for example 1 or 3 years, and cancelling before the end date can cost a cancellation fee (opzegvergoeding).
- After a fixed contract ends, it becomes a variable tariff (variabel tarief), and the supplier (energieleverancier) must announce the new rates at least 30 days ahead.
- With a variable tariff the supplier may change the rate, usually at set moments such as every 3 months, with at least 1 month's notice, and cancelling costs no fee.
- A dynamic tariff (dynamisch tarief) follows wholesale market prices, with electricity changing every quarter-hour, hour or day and gas changing per day, so a price fall shows up at once, and so does a rise.
Source: ACM ConsuWijzer: vaste en variabele leveringskosten (https://consument.acm.nl/elektriciteit-en-gas/wat-betaal-ik-voor-mijn-energie/vaste-variabele-leveringskosten-energie), read 2026-11-05

## Background

- **TTF**: TTF (Title Transfer Facility) is a virtual trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands, traded on the Amsterdam exchange run by ICE Endex. Its price, quoted in euros per megawatt hour, is the main European benchmark for wholesale gas, so Dutch news reports its movements as a sign of changes in energy costs.

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